M-13: Orphan Drug Demand Analysis in China - Empirical Forecasting Study of National Market from 2019 to 2028
Poster Presenter
Jiaqi Xu
Student
University of Macau China
Objectives
(1) To calculate the market demand of orphan drugs in China based on the actual sale data;
(2) To forecast China orphan drugs’ market demand from 2019-2028
Method
Search China rare disease list, choose diseases
• Can be treated by drug in US • Drugs are not marketed in China
Estimate the population in 2018-2029 in China.
Forecast the market demand in 2019-2028 by Chinese population, incident and drug cost of rare disease patient calculated in US data.
Results
1. Among the rare disease list in China, 15 diseases can be treated by drugs marketed in the US and not imported to China, which accounts for 12.39% of the rare disease list.
2. The population of China in 2019-2028 will range from 1.40 ~ 1.46 billion, and the sum will be 14.34 billion including 7.31 billion males and 7.08 billion females.
3. For the 15 diseases total number of patients from 2019 to 2028 is expected to be 4.90 ~ 7.85 million in China.
4. The mean cost per rare disease patient per year managed to hit $147,308 in 2017 in US from Evaluatepharma.
5. China's orphan drug demand will reach $1.16 trillion from 2019 to 2028.
Conclusion
1.Most rare diseases are genetic problems, which are related to the health of all human beings. Various countries are also actively involved in the drug development of rare diseases. On this topic, China is just getting started and still faces the problem of lack of orphan drugs. Before advancing the research and development of domestic orphan drugs, introduce imported orphan drugs to ensure the rights and interests of rare patients in China is more significant.
2. China has a huge market demand for orphan drugs. This market opportunity require both international and domestic pharmaceutical industries to re-considerate to be the new players. If the corresponding policy guidance is promulgated, the orphan drug market will become a new and huge field.
